Senate Ethics Dispute Pushes CLARITY Act Odds Below 40% on Polymarket

The CLARITY Act, a proposed U.S. crypto regulation bill, is facing increasing uncertainty on the prediction market Polymarket. Traders have priced the probability of its passage at under 40%, down from earlier estimates. The decline follows a deadlock in the Senate, where Democrats are demanding the inclusion of an ethics clause related to former President Donald Trump's reported $1.4 billion in cryptocurrency earnings. The clause aims to address potential conflicts of interest, but Republicans argue it could delay or derail the legislation. This political standoff highlights the growing intersection of crypto policy and partisan politics, with market participants adjusting their expectations accordingly.